Retail sales may be increasing on paper, but much of that “growth” is still failing to outpace inflation, meaning many brands aren’t seeing real demand rise in line with the numbers.
That distinction matters, because retail headlines are often reported in value terms, while the reality for many brands is about volume, margins, and where demand is actually originating.
Below is what we’re watching at Vantage as we head through 2026.
The primary sources of retail demand in 2026
1) Google is still the “bottom of funnel” king
When people are ready to buy (or at least compare), Google Search is still where majority intent shows up. Even if discovery begins on social, the journey often ends with:
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a Google search
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“brand + reviews”
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“best X for Y”
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price checks, delivery checks, returns policy checks
The big change isn’t that Google stops mattering – it’s that Google is answering more on the results page, and sending fewer clicks out to websites for basic queries (AI summaries, richer SERPs, shopping modules, etc.). ONS data also shows volumes can soften even when “sales values” look stable, which is where a lot of brand reporting gets messy.
2) TikTok is a discovery engine (and it’s not subtle anymore)
TikTok is where people find products now, especially impulse-friendly categories, problem-solvers, “why didn’t I know this existed?” buys.
We’re also seeing hard numbers supporting the shift:
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63% of British shoppers say they’ve already bought via social media, and 77% say viral trends/social buzz influence purchases, according to DHL’s E-Commerce Trends Report 2025.
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TikTok + Retail Economics projected UK social commerce to nearly double by 2028, suggesting the curve is still steep.
In plain English: TikTok is increasingly the shop window and sometimes the checkout.
3) Instagram influences taste, trust, and “brand feel”
Instagram is less “I need this now” (though it can be), and more:
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aesthetic validation
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lifestyle positioning
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creator proof
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social proof (“people like me use this”)
If TikTok is discovery-by-velocity, Instagram is discovery-by-identity, with hotels, travel escapes, the hospitality sector seeing success through influencers and well documented ‘real experience’ short-form videos.
4) Marketplaces + reviews are the quiet deciders
Even when the first touch is social and the final step is Google, the conversion often happens because of:
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marketplace presence (availability + speed)
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review quality and recency
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visible customer service / returns policies
This is the unglamorous part of retail growth that still does most of the heavy lifting.
What actually influences buying decisions right now
In 2026, we’re seeing a fairly consistent “decision stack” across most categories:
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Price and perceived value
Not just cheapest, but “is this worth it?” Retailers are still dealing with cost pressure and shoppers are still cautious. -
Trust signals
Reviews, UGC, credible creators, recognisable brand presence, clear policies. -
Convenience
Delivery speed, stock clarity, easy returns. If it’s hard to buy, people bounce. -
Proof it works
Before/after, demos, comparisons, ingredient/spec clarity (this is why video content keeps winning). -
Brand alignment
Sustainability, ethics, UK-made, etc. This varies by audience, but it’s increasingly part of the final decision.
Will retail sales rise or fall in 2026?
This is where it gets interesting: credible forecasts disagree, largely because they’re measuring slightly different things (nominal vs real growth, volume vs value, category mix, etc.).
Here’s the honest picture:
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ONS reported UK retail sales volumes dipping in Q4 2025 vs Q3, a reminder that demand can soften even when spending looks steady.
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CBRE forecasts UK year-on-year retail sales growth of ~1.9% in 2026 (their view: gradual recovery, but still uneven).
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Centre for Retail Research forecasts a real-terms decline in 2026 (their view: volumes under pressure once inflation is stripped out).
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Bain (via reporting of their outlook) suggests growth slows in 2026 across major markets including the UK which again points to a tougher environment than headline “growth” implies.
Our take at Vantage
We don’t think 2026 is a “retail boom” year. We think it’s a polarisation year:
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brands with strong distribution, strong creative, and strong trust signals will grow
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brands relying on one channel (pure SEO, pure paid, or pure social) will feel the squeeze
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the winners will be the ones who can turn discovery (TikTok/IG) into intent (Google) into conversion (site/marketplace) reliably
- If you’re a commodity brand trying to stand out amongst the competition solely through the same marketing channels as the competition, it will increasingly get harder to standout
So: sales may rise in nominal terms, but real growth (volume) will be patchy, and plenty of brands will experience it as flat or down unless they adapt. Creative, standout marketing could make the difference between a flat or flourishing year.
The practical takeaway
If you’re building retail growth in 2026, don’t ask “is SEO dead?” or “should we just do TikTok?”
Ask:
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Where are we being discovered?
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Where is intent showing up?
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Do we look trustworthy when people check us?
- Do we stand out amongst the competition?
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Is it frictionless to buy?
That’s the playbook.